25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. au. . In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. . Sign upDay of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. Retweets. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes - it has only just started. Investors want little to do with a sector heading for a big dose of reality. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2021 Olympic Medalist, Joey Lye, shares stories and insight into some of the mental skills and strategies that prepared her [email protected] million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Sir. christopher joye on Twitter. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983 - MacroBusiness. Well done. There was only one way to go. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. In this conversation. @cjoye. Replying to. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. 2m are customer assets. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3%. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. May 2. . ”Log in. Stock up 18%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. Since first RBA May hike, Syd/national market has fallen at 23%/14% annualised pace. christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 92. Australia experiences worst house price falls in 42 years, with more to come. and @Johnkehoe23. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. . “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. . Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. macrobusiness. 7% in 11 days of Aug); Melb down 3. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. 7%. ConversationSee new Tweets. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. . Aug 16. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. Replying to. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. 4. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. ALT. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Quote Tweet. 5% pa, or 2. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. It. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. ConversationIn this conversation. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will bring the RBA much closer to global central banks like BoE at 4. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. @Dante57112893. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. @cjoye. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye @PodcastFear. . au. “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. This will. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. Sign upLog in. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. Logically can't happen. christopher joye. @TheKouk · Jul 8. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. . This is deflationary. estimates will revise down a bit. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney (+1. Log in. It's very unstable at the street level. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. 6%mom) prices led the increase. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). 4% pa return. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2%. Log in. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. A 30year investment for most. 04 Jun 2023 22:01:37We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. . 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. . By Huobi announced $18. commodities are a grand idea #BTC“Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB up. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. macrobusiness. In this conversation. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. Found. Forecast looks good. “@cjoye Well this RBA info has finally caught up with Alan Kohler I photo’d the tv last yr & kept the dates visible I added words he was saying to the slides Check out the dates! August & October LAST YEAR!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. Log in. 7%. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09 “RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…” christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. afr. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. @cjoye. & 50% are admin. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet. The bears are gonna start running for the hills when they see wolverine chasing em”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You've reached your limit when it comes to tweeting about bitcoin being under $20k. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. In this conversation. . Sydney is off 10. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ly/3pmX9Dk. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. We reap what we sow. . CoreLogic: Australian home values officially record the largest decline on record would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. Interesting. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. 1% in 2020 drove Aussie houses prices 37% higher. ↑ Joye, Christopher. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. “Good morning!”In this conversation. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. com. Sitting on $6. 76% from 0. You actually charge people a fee for that performance?”“@KirilRuvinsky @cjoye People are away in Sydney, this Aussie day turned into a long weekend, my wife works in circular quay and there were 5 people on her floor at work! People are still spending and it appears that less people under 35 have a mortgage these days, rising unemployment is the only key”Imaging if mums&dads can directly access to 6. The Australian Financial. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Log in. afr. 85% to 4. 1:56 AM · Jul 29, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. Interesting. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upIn this conversation. 65% in November. LNP for all its 'hawkishness' over China refused to develop onshore manufacturing for fear of unions. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. “@cjoye Step forward for transparency, but still doesn’t stop more/different things being said in other forums (or by other RBA officials). Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. . Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. Sydney (+1. I suspect the increased earnings (and potentially profit) of the big players in ASX 200 might offset increases in discount rates. Retweets. 2 days ago. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. Quote Tweet. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. OAKVILLE, ON — September 1, 2022 — Today marks the start of a new chapter for JOY RADIO (CJYE) as it unveils not only a new look, but a new feel to their. Immigration is still big in Aus. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. Conversation. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. ConversationA not so tiny drop in some parts of the country. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. 4%. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. Log in. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. this conversation. “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. @cjoye yep, thats the point. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. @cjoye. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. Crypto is toxic”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. 9% vs 56. 11. . Sign upchristopher joye @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. Retweets. 3. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. . “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. @cjoye. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. House prices fell at slightly slower rate in Oct, with 5 city index from @corelogicau losing 1. This marks a turning point in your powers. The business indicators measure of wages suggests annual growth in non-farm hourly earnings picked up to 5% in Q1, although this series has grown more strongly than the RBA’s series over the past year. I believe this includes offset accounts. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Likes. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change from entitled millennials who have never experienced high…. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. 4% this time last yr. @cjoye. @cjoye. Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. 1. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. 50% in 2019 to 0. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Lower bound of our 15-25pc forecast correction could be an optimistic outcome…”Log in. Melb also up: 67. Sydney prices have fallen by 11. See new Tweets. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. So presumably brought their first home. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. . “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. 7%; Brisb off 1. Some areas down -25. 5% plus 1% productivity. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. 2%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. 5%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.